Cost Analysis of Electronic Systems 2nd Edition by Peter Sandborn 981314825X 9789813148253
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ISBN 10: 981314825X
ISBN 13: 9789813148253
Author: Peter Sandborn
This book provides an introduction to the cost modeling for electronic systems that is suitable for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in electrical, mechanical and industrial engineering, and professionals involved with electronics technology development and management. This book melds elements of traditional engineering economics with manufacturing process and life-cycle cost management concepts to form a practical foundation for predicting the cost of electronic products and systems. Various manufacturing cost analysis methods are addressed including: process-flow, parametric, cost of ownership, and activity based costing. The effects of learning curves, data uncertainty, test and rework processes, and defects are considered. Aspects of system sustainment and life-cycle cost modeling including reliability (warranty, burn-in), maintenance (sparing and availability), and obsolescence are treated. Finally, total cost of ownership of systems, return on investment, cost-benefit analysis, and real options analysis are addressed.
Cost Analysis of Electronic Systems 2nd Table of contents:
Chapter 1 Introduction
1.1 Cost Modeling
1.2 The Product Life Cycle
1.3 Life-Cycle Cost Scope
1.4 Cost Modeling Definitions
1.5 Cost Modeling for Electronic Systems
1.6 The Organization of this Book
References
Part I Manufacturing Cost Modeling
I.1 Classification of Products Based on Manufacturing Cost
References
Chapter 2 Process-Flow Analysis
2.1 Process Steps and Process Flows
2.1.1 Process-Step Sequence
2.1.2 Process-Step Inputs and Outputs
2.2 Process-Step Calculations
2.2.1 Labor Costs
2.2.2 Materials Costs
2.2.3 Tooling Costs
2.2.4 Equipment/Capital Costs
2.2.5 Total Cost
2.2.6 Capacity
2.3 Process-Flow Examples
2.3.1 Simple Pick & Place and Reflow Process
2.3.2 Multi-Step Process-Flow Example
2.4 Technical Cost Modeling (TCM)
2.5 Comments
References
Problems
Chapter 3 Yield
3.1 Defects
3.2 Yield Prediction
3.2.1 The Poisson Approximation to the Binomial Distribution
3.2.2 The Poisson Yield Model
3.2.3 The Murphy Yield Model
3.2.4 Other Yield Models
3.3 Accumulated Yield
3.3.1 Multi-Step Process-Flow Example
3.3.2 The Known Good Die (KGD) Problem
3.4 Yielded Cost
3.5 The Relationship Between Yield and Producibility
References
Bibliography
Problems
Chapter 4 Equipment/Facilities Cost of Ownership (COO)
4.1 The Cost of Ownership Algorithm
4.2 Cost of Ownership Modeling
4.2.1 Capital Costs
4.2.2 Sustainment Costs
4.2.3 Performance Costs
4.3 Using COO to Compare Two Machines
4.4 Estimating Product Costs
References
Bibliography
Problems
Chapter 5 Activity-Based Costing (ABC)
5.1 The Activity-Based Cost Modeling Concept
5.1.1 Applicability of ABC to Cost Modeling
5.2 Formulation of Activity-Based Cost Models
5.2.1 Traditional Cost Accounting (TCA)
5.2.2 Activity-Based Costing
5.3 Activity-Based Cost Model Example
5.4 Time-Driven Activity-Based Costing (TDABC)
5.5 Summary and Discussion
References
Bibliography
Problems
Chapter 6 Parametric Cost Modeling
6.1 Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs)
6.1.1 Developing CERs
6.2 A Simple Parametric Cost Modeling Example
6.3 Limitations of CERs
6.3.1 Bounds of the Data
6.3.2 Scope of the Data
6.3.3 Overfitting
6.3.4 Don’t Force a Correlation When One Does Not Exist
6.3.5 Historical Data
6.4 Other Parametric Cost Modeling/Estimation Approaches
6.4.1 Feature-Based Costing (FBC)
6.4.2 Neural Network Based Cost Estimation
6.4.3 Costing by Analogy
6.5 Summary and Discussion
References
Bibliography
Problems
Chapter 7 Test Economics
7.1 Defects and Faults
7.1.1 Relating Defects to Faults
7.2 Defect and Fault Coverage
7.3 Relating Fault Coverage to Yield
7.3.1 A Tempting (but Incorrect) Derivation of Outgoing Yield
7.3.2 A Correct Interpretation of Fault Coverage
7.3.3 A Derivation of Outgoing Yield (Yout)
7.3.4 An Alternative Outgoing Yield Formulation
7.4 A Test Step Process Model
7.4.1 Test Escapes
7.4.2 Defects Introduced by Test Steps
7.5 False Positives
7.5.1 A Test Step with False Positives
7.5.2 Yield of the Bonepile
7.6 Multiple Test Steps
7.6.1 Cascading Test Steps
7.6.2 Parallel Test Steps
7.7 Financial Models of Testing
7.8 Other Test Economics Topics
7.8.1 Wafer Probe (Wafer Sort)
7.8.2 Test Throughput
7.8.3 Design for Test (DFT)
7.8.4 Automated Test Equipment Costs
References
Bibliography
Problems
Chapter 8 Diagnosis and Rework
8.1 Diagnosis
8.2 Rework
8.3 Test/Diagnosis/Rework Modeling
8.3.1 Single-Pass Rework Example
8.3.2 A General Multi-Pass Rework Model
8.3.3 Variable Rework Cost and Yield Models
8.3.4 Example Test/Diagnosis/Rework Analysis
8.4 Rework Cost (Crework fixed)
References
Problems
Chapter 9 Uncertainty Modeling — Uncertainty Modeling
Uncertainty Modeling
9.1 Representing the Uncertainty in Parameters
9.2 Monte Carlo Analysis
9.2.1 How Does Monte Carlo Work?
9.2.2 Random Sampling Values from Known Distributions
9.2.3 Triangular Distribution Derivation
9.2.4 Random Sampling from a Data Set
9.2.5 Implementation Challenges with Monte Carlo Analysis
9.3 Sample Size
9.4 Example Monte Carlo Analysis
9.5 Stratified Sampling (Latin Hypercube)
9.5.1 Building a Latin Hypercube Sample (LHS)
9.5.2 Comments on LHS
9.6 Discussion
References
Bibliography
Problems
Chapter 10 Learning Curves
10.1 Mathematical Models for Learning Curves
10.2 Unit Learning Curve Model
10.3 Cumulative Average Learning Curve Model
10.4 Marginal Learning Curve Model
10.5 Learning Curve Mathematics
10.5.1 Unit Learning Data from Cumulative Average Learning Curves
10.5.2 The Slide Property of Learning Curves
10.5.3 The Relationship between the Learning Index and the Learning Rate
10.5.4 The Midpoint Formula
10.5.5 Comparing Learning Curves
10.6 Determining Learning Curves from Actual Data
10.6.1 Simple Data
10.6.2 Block Data.
10.7 Learning Curves for Yield
10.7.1 Gruber’s Learning Curve for Yield
10.7.2 Hilberg’s Learning Curve for Yield
10.7.3 Defect Density Learning
References
Bibliography
Problems
Part II Life-Cycle Cost Modeling
II.1 System Sustainment
II.2 Cost Avoidance
II.3 Should-Cost
II.4 Time Value of Money
II.4.1 Inflation
II.5 Logistics
II.6 References
Chapter 11 Reliability
11.1 Product Failure
11.2 Reliability Basics
11.2.1 Failure Distributions
11.2.2 Exponential Distribution
11.2.3 Weibull Distribution
11.2.4 Conditional Reliability
11.3 Qualification and Certification
11.4 Cost of Reliability
References
Bibliography
Problems
Chapter 12 Sparing
Challenges with Spares
12.1 Calculating the Number of Spares
12.1.1 Multi-Unit Spares for Repairable Items
12.1.2 Sparing for a Kit of Repairable Items
12.1.3 Sparing for Large k
12.2 The Cost of Spares
12.2.1 Spares Cost Example
12.2.2 Extensions of the Cost Model
12.3 Summary and Comments
References
Bibliography
Problems
Chapter 13 Warranty Cost Analysis
How Warranties Impact Cost
13.1 Types of Warranties
13.2 Renewal Functions
13.2.1 The Renewal Function for Constant Failure Rate
13.2.2 Asymptotic Approximation of M(t)
13.3 Simple Warranty Cost Models
13.3.1 Ordinary (Non-Renewing) Free-Replacement Warranty Cost Model
13.3.2 Pro-Rata (Non-Renewing) Warranty Cost Model
13.3.3 Investment of the Warranty Reserve Fund
13.3.4 Other Warranty Reserve Fund Estimation Models
13.4 Two-Dimensional Warranties
13.5 Warranty Service Costs — Real Systems
References
Problems
Chapter 14 Burn-In Cost Modeling
The Cost Tradeoffs Associated with Burn-In
14.1 Burn-In Cost Model
14.1.1 Cost of Performing the Burn-In
14.1.2 The Value of Burn-In
14.2 Example Burn-In Cost Analysis
14.3 Effective Manufacturing Cost of Units That Survive Burn-In
14.4 Burn-In for Repairable Units
14.5 Discussion
References
Bibliography
Problems
Chapter 15 Availability
15.1 Time-Based Availability Measures
15.1.1 Time-Interval-Based Availability Measures
15.1.2 Downtime-Based Availability Measures
15.1.3 Application-Specific Availability Measures
15.2 Maintainability and Maintenance Time
15.3 Monte Carlo Time-Based Availability Calculation Example
15.4 Markov Availability Models
15.5 Spares Demand-Driven Availability
15.5.1 Backorders and Supply Availability
15.5.2 Erlang-B
15.5.3 Materiel Availability
15.5.4 Energy-Based Availability
15.6 Availability Contracting
15.6.1 Product Service Systems (PSS)
15.6.2 Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs)
15.6.3 Performance-Based Logistics (PBLs)
15.6.4 Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs)
15.7 Readiness
15.8 Discussion
References
Problems
Chapter 16 The Cost Ramifications of Obsolescence
Electronic Part Obsolescence
16.1 Managing Electronic Part Obsolescence
16.2 Lifetime Buy Costs
16.2.1 The Newsvendor Problem
16.2.2 Application of the Newsvendor Optimization Problem to Electronic Parts
16.3 Strategic Management of Obsolescence
16.3.1 Porter Design Refresh Model
16.3.2 MOCA Design Refresh Model
16.3.3 Material Risk Index (MRI)
16.4 Discussion
16.4.1 Budgeting/Bidding Support
16.4.2 Value of DMSMS Management
16.4.3 Software Obsolescence
16.4.4 Human Skills Obsolescence
References
Problems
Chapter 17 Return on Investment (ROI)
17.1 Definition of ROI
17.2 Cost Reduction and Cost Savings ROIs
17.2.1 ROI of a Manufacturing Equipment Replacement
17.2.2 Technology Adoption ROI
17.3 Cost Avoidance ROI
17.4 Stochastic ROI Calculations
17.5 Summary
References
Problems
Chapter 18 The Cost of Service
18.1 Why Estimate the Cost of a Service?
18.2 An Engineering Service Example
18.3 How to Estimate the Cost of an Engineering Service
18.4 Application of the Service Costing Approach within an Industrial Company
18.5 Bidding for the Service Contract
References
Problems
Chapter 19 Software Development and Support Costs
19.1 Software Development Costs
19.1.1 The COCOMO Model
19.1.2 Function-Point Analysis
19.1.3 Object-Point Analysis
19.2 Software Support Costs
19.3 Discussion
References
Bibliography
Problems
Chapter 20 Total Cost of Ownership Examples
20.1 The Total Cost of Ownership of Color Printers
20.2 Total Cost of Ownership for Electronic Parts
20.2.1 Part Total Cost of Ownership Model
20.2.2 Example Analyses
20.3 Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE)
References
Chapter 21 Cost, Benefit and Risk Tradeoffs
21.1 Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA)
21.1.1 What is a Benefit?
21.1.2 Performing CBA
21.1.3 Determining the Value of Human Life
21.1.4 Comments on CBA
21.2 Modeling the Cost of Risk
21.2.1 A Multiple Severity Model for Technology Insertion
21.3 Rare Events
21.3.1 What is a Rare Event?
21.3.2 Unbalanced Misclassification Costs
21.3.3 The False Positive Paradox
References
Bibliography
Problems
Chapter 22 Real Options Analysis
22.1 Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Decision Tree Analyses (DTA)
22.2 Introduction to Real Options
22.3 Valuation
22.3.1 Replicating Portfolio Theory
22.3.2 Binomial Lattices
22.3.3 Risk-Neutral Probabilities and Riskless Rates
22.4 Black-Scholes
22.4.1 Correlating Black-Scholes to Binomial Lattice
22.5 Simulation-Based Real Options Example: Maintenance Options
22.6 Closing Comments
References
Bibliography
Problems
Appendix A Notation
Appendix B Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
B.1 The Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
B.1.1 Cost of Equity
B.1.2 Cost of Debt
B.1.3 Calculating the WACC
B.2 Forecasting Future WACC
B.3 Comments
B.3.1 Trade-off Theory
B.3.2 Social Opportunity Cost of Capital (SOC)
References
Problems
Appendix C Discrete-Event Simulation (DES)
C.1 Events
C.2 DES Examples
C.2.1 A Trivial DES Example
C.2.2 A Not So Trivial DES Example
C.3 Discussion
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