Decision Behaviour Analysis and Support 1st Edition by Simon French, John Maule, Nadia Papamichail ISBN 0521883342 9780521883344

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ISBN 10: 0521883342 
ISBN 13: 9780521883344
Author: Simon French, John Maule, Nadia Papamichail

Behavioural studies have shown that while humans may be the best decision makers on the planet, we are not quite as good as we think we are. We are regularly subject to biases, inconsistencies and irrationalities in our decision making. Decision Behaviour, Analysis and Support explores perspectives from many different disciplines to show how we can help decision makers to deliberate and make better decisions. It considers both the use of computers and databases to support decisions as well as human aids to building analyses and some fast and frugal tricks to aid more consistent decision making. In its exploration of decision support it draws together results and observations from decision theory, behavioural and psychological studies, artificial intelligence and information systems, philosophy, operational research and organisational studies. This provides a valuable resource for managers with decision-making responsibilities and students from a range of disciplines, including management, engineering and information systems.

Decision Behaviour Analysis and Support 1st Table of contents:

1 Introduction
1.1 Decisions, decisions, decisions!
1.2 The strategy pyramid
1.3 Rationalistic versus evolutionary strategic decision making
1.4 Players in a decision
1.5 Representation of decision problems
1.6 Some other terminology
1.7 Outline of the book
1.8 Background reading
1.9 Exercises and questions for discussion
2 Behavioural decision studies
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Do people choose in accordance with the rational SEU model?
2.3 The sure-thing axiom
The Allais paradox
The Ellsberg paradox
2.4 Invariance and framing
Preference reversal
Framing effects
2.5 Prospect theory
Editing
Evaluation
2.6 Judgements of risk and probability
2.7 Judgemental heuristics and biases
2.8 Emotion
2.9 Developing decision-thinking skills
Taking an outside rather than an inside perspective
Consider the opposite
2.10 Concluding remarks and further reading
2.11 Exercises and questions for discussion
3 Decision analysis and support
3.1 Introduction
3.2 An introduction to normative modelling
3.3 An axiomatic development of the SEU model
Subjective probability
Preferences over lotteries
Preferences over lotteries
Subjective expected utility
3.4 Prescriptive decision analysis and requisite modelling
3.5 Value-focused thinking
3.6 The process of decision analysis and support
3.7 Decision support software and systems
3.8 Good heuristics
3.9 Concluding remarks and further reading
3.10 Exercises and questions for discussion
4 Information and knowledge management
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Human memory
4.3 Data, information and knowledge
4.4 Databases, data warehouses and data mining
4.5 Knowledge management
4.6 Statistics and decision support
4.7 Concluding remarks and further reading
4.8 Exercises and questions for discussion
5 Artificial intelligence and expert systems
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Human versus artificial intelligence
5.3 AI technologies
5.4 Expert systems
5.5 Artificial neural networks
5.6 Genetic algorithms
5.7 Other intelligent systems
Fuzzy logic
Case-based reasoning
Intelligent agents
5.8 Concluding remarks and further reading
5.9 Exercises and questions for discussion
6 Operational research and optimisation
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Optimisation: the heart of OR?
6.3 Interactive multi-objective programming
6.4 OR-based DSSs
6.5 The OR process
6.6 Sequential decision processes
6.7 Concluding remarks and further reading
6.8 Exercises and questions for discussion
7 Decision analysis and multiple objectives
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Choice behaviour in the face of complex alternatives and multi-attribute value analysis
Compensatory and non-compensatory strategies
Are simple strategies always bad?
7.3 Consequence and multi-attribute modelling
7.4 Multi-attribute value modelling
7.5 The ‘evening out’ example
7.6 Absolute and relative weights
7.7 Elicitation of weights and values
7.8 Chernobyl case study
Introduction
The social and political background
Organisation of the decision conferences
Decision modelling
Concluding remarks
7.9 Other schools of decision analysis
7.10 Concluding remarks and further reading
7.11 Exercises and questions for discussion
8 Decision analysis and uncertainty
8.1 Introduction
8.2 Modelling uncertainty
8.3 The subjective expected utility model
8.4 Risk attitude and SEU modelling
8.5 SEU modelling, decision trees and influence diagrams: an example
8.6 Elicitation of subjective probabilities
8.7 Elicitation of utilities
8.8 Chemical scrubbers case study
8.9 Concluding remarks and further reading
8.10 Exercises and questions for discussion
9 Issue formulation and problem structuring
9.1 Introduction
9.2 Brainstorming and soft modelling
9.3 Checklists
PESTEL and 7 S’s
Prompts to identify uncertainties
SWOT
PROACT and CATWOE
9.4 Simple two-dimensional plots
Stakeholder identification
Uncertainty identification
9.5 Trees and networks
Mindmaps
Cognitive maps
9.6 Management models
Porter’s five forces model
Simons’ levers of control
The strategy space model
9.7 Rich picture diagrams
9.8 Scenario planning
9.9 From qualitative to quantitative modelling
9.10 Concluding remarks and further reading
9.11 Exercises and questions for discussion
10 Strategic decision analysis
10.1 Introduction
10.2 The decision analysis cycle
Problem formulation
Evaluate alternatives
Review decision models
10.3 Sensitivity analysis
10.4 Incorporation of expert and stakeholder opinions
10.5 Risk analysis
10.6 Concluding remarks and further reading
10.7 Exercises and questions for discussion
11 Groups of decision makers
11.1 Introduction
11.2 Review of research on decision making in groups
11.3 Arrow’s impossibility theorem
11.4 Procedures for improving decision making in groups
11.5 Facilitated workshops and decision conferencing
11.6 Game theory, negotiation and bargaining
11.7 Concluding remarks and further reading
11.8 Exercises and questions for discussion
12 Organisational decision support
12.1 Introduction
12.2 A historical perspective on organisational decision making
12.3 Organisational decision-making models
12.4 The internal and external contexts of organisations
12.5 Organisational decision-making practices
12.6 Organisational decision analysis and support
12.7 Emergency management support
12.8 Concluding remarks and further reading
12.9 Exercises and questions for discussion
13 Societal decision making
13.1 Introduction
13.2 A brief look at cost-benefit analysis
13.3 Public perception and risk communication
13.4 Deliberative democracy and public participation
13.5 E-participation and e-democracy: a panacea?
13.6 Concluding remarks and further reading
13.7 Exercises and questions for discussion
14 Decision support systems
14.1 Introduction
14.2 Decision support systems
14.3 Group decision support systems
14.4 Intelligent decision support systems
14.5 Design of DSSs
14.6 Evaluation of decision support systems
14.7 Latest trends in decision support
14.8 Further reading
14.9 Exercises and questions for discussion
15 Conclusions
15.1 The key messages
15.2 Linking prescriptive and behavioural approaches
How description can benefit prescription
How prescription can benefit description
15.3 The challenges to decision support brought by Web 2.0

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Tags: Simon French, John Maule, Nadia Papamichail, Decision