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Global Economic Prospects 2009 Commodities at the Crossroads 2009th Edition by World Bank ISBN 0821378015 9780821378014

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Global Economic Prospects 2009 Commodities at the Crossroads 2009th Edition World Bank Digital Instant Download

Author(s): World Bank
ISBN(s): 9780821378014, 0821378015
Edition: 2009
File Details: PDF, 4.01 MB
Year: 2008
Language: english
SKU: EB-1846086 Category: Tag:

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ISBN 10: 0821378015 
ISBN 13: 9780821378014
Author: World Bank

The eruption of the worldwide financial crisis has radically recast prospects for the world economy. Global Economic Prospects 2009 analyzes the implications of the crisis for low- and middle-income countries, including an in-depth look at long-term prospects for global commodity markets and the policies of both commodity producing and consuming nations. Developing countries face sharply higher borrowing costs and reduced access to capital, cutting into their capacity to finance investment spending. The looming recession presents new risks, coming as it does on the heels of the recent food and fuel crisis. Commodity markets, meanwhile, are at a crossroads. Following decades of low prices and weak investment in supply capacity, commodity prices first spiked and have now plummeted in response to the financial crisis. In the longer run, commodities are not expected to be in short supply. Prices should be higher than they were in the 1990s but much lower than in the recent past. These higher prices should provide producers with sufficient incentive to discover new supplies, improve output from existing resources, and promote greater conservation and substitution with more abundant alternatives. At the same time, slower population growth will ease the pace at which commodity demand grows. Policies to limit carbon emissions and boost agricultural investment, along with the dissemination of efficient techniques, should also contribute to this long-term outcome. This year s Global Economic Prospects also looks at government responses to the recent price boom.

Global Economic Prospects 2009 Commodities at the Crossroads 2009th Table of contents:

Chapter 1: Prospects for the Global Economy

  • Financial markets: Analysis of the global financial crisis, its origins, and its transmission channels to developing countries.
  • Outlook for high-income OECD countries: Projections and analysis of economic performance in developed economies.
  • Outlook for the developing countries: Detailed forecast for growth, inflation, and other economic indicators in low- and middle-income countries, categorized by region (e.g., East Asia and the Pacific, Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa).
  • World Trade: Examination of global trade dynamics in the context of the economic downturn.
  • Commodity markets: Analysis of the commodity price trends (surge and subsequent fall) and their immediate implications.
  • Key risks and uncertainties: Discussion of major downside risks to the global economic outlook.
  • Long-term prospects and poverty forecast: Projections for long-term growth and their implications for poverty reduction.
  • This chapter includes numerous figures and tables presenting economic data, forecasts, and key developments.
  • Likely includes boxes with specific analysis, e.g., on the chronology of the financial crisis.

Chapter 2: The Commodity Boom: Longer-Term Prospects

  • Characteristics of the current commodity price boom: Detailed analysis of the features distinguishing the recent boom from historical patterns.
  • The roots of the boom in commodity prices: Examination of the underlying factors that drove commodity prices up (e.g., strong global growth, particularly in developing countries, low investment in supply capacity).
  • Long-term demand prospects: Projections and analysis of future demand for various commodities, considering factors like population growth, income levels, and technological progress.
  • Long-term supply prospects: Assessment of the potential for increasing commodity supply, including discussions on reserves, production capacity, and technological advancements.
  • Projections: Long-term price forecasts for key commodities.
  • Conclusions: Summary of the findings regarding the long-term outlook for commodity markets.
  • Technical Annex: Sensitivity Analysis: Further technical details on the models and assumptions used for projections.
  • This chapter also contains extensive figures and tables illustrating commodity price trends, demand/supply factors, and projections.

Chapter 3: Dealing with Changing Commodity Prices

  • Commodity dependence and growth: Analysis of how commodity dependence affects economic growth in developing countries.
  • Managing primary commodity booms: Discussion of policies and strategies for commodity-exporting countries to manage windfalls and mitigate risks.
  • Poverty impacts of higher commodity prices: Examination of how rising (and falling) commodity prices affect poverty incidence and severity, particularly for food and fuel.
  • Dealing with high food and fuel prices: Policy responses implemented by developing countries to address the challenges of high commodity prices (e.g., cash transfers, school feeding programs, trade policies).
  • The international response to high commodity prices: Overview of global initiatives and coordination efforts.
  • Conclusions: Key policy recommendations for dealing with commodity price volatility.
  • This chapter uses figures and tables to illustrate policy responses and their impacts.

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