Nuclear Proliferation and International Order Challenges to the Non Proliferation Treaty 1st Edition by Olav Njølstad 0415580986 9780415580984

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ISBN 10: 0415580986

ISBN 13: 9780415580984

Author: Olav Njølstad

This book examines the state of the nuclear non-proliferation regime and the issues it faces in the early 21st century. Despite the fact that most countries in the world have signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) there is growing concern that the NPT is in serious trouble and may not be able to stop the further spread of nuclear weapons. If so, international stability will be undermined, with potentially disastrous consequences, and the vision of a nuclear weapon-free world will become utterly unrealistic. More specifically, the NPT is exposed to four main challenges, explored in this book: challenges from outside, as three countries that have not signed the Treaty – Israel, India and Pakistan – are known to possess nuclear weapons; challenges from within, as some countries that have signed on to the Treaty as non-nuclear weapons states have nevertheless developed or are suspected to be trying to develop nuclear weapons (North Korea and Iran being cases in point); challenges from below in the shape of terrorists and other non-state actors who may want to acquire radioactive materials or even nuclear weapons; and, finally, challenges from above due to the perceived failure of the five legal nuclear weapons states to keep their part of the ‘double bargain’ made by the parties of the NPT and take serious steps towards nuclear disarmament. This book will be of much interest to students of nuclear proliferation, international security, war and conflict studies and IR in general.

Table of contents:

1 Introduction
How the present nuclear order came about
Different approaches to control of the peaceful nature of nuclear activities
Fissionable material, enrichment and reprocessing in focus for control
Early US efforts to seek controls of nuclear material
The role of the IAEA
The role of the NPT
How wiff the nucfear order change? The vision of the Bush team
The search for a non-mifitary and non-nucfear weapon order

Part I Challenge from outside

2 The Indian nuclear program
Why did India acquire nuclear weapons?
Nuclear weapons’ strategic effects in South Asia
The future trajectory of India’s nuclear capacity
Nuclear India: a mixed case for non-proliferation
Notes

3 Pakistan’s nuclear weapons programme
Why did Pakistan build nuclear weapons?
Assessment and lessons
Impact on the global non-proliferation regime
Pakistan and nuclear non-proliferation
Conclusion
Notes

4 Israel’s nuclear capability
Feeling threatened: Israel’s security obsession
Building the bomb: the French connection
Veifing the bomb: the American connection
The bomb and three wars
The Suez War
The Arab–Israeli wars of 1967 and 1973
The paradox of ambiguity and deterrence
Regional perceptions and responses
Egypt
Iraq
Libya
Iran
Syria
Nuclear technology networks
The Israeli domestic debate
Toward a security and cooperation framework in the Middle East
Phase 1: CSBMs
Phase 2: capping of WMD stocks
Phase 3: establishing WMDFZ
Notes

Part II Challenges from within

5 How to bring North Korea back into the NPT
The two faces of North Korea’s nuclear arms: deterrents and bargaining chips
The failure of the crime-and-punishment approach
Negotiations derailed again
What if North Korea does not change course?
Needed: a change of strategy
Uncertainty
Change in North Korea
Leverage
The NPT and proliferation
Notes

6 Challenge from within
Real and virtual arsenals
Reining in a virtual arsenal
Verification
Multinational fuel cycle facilities
Internationalization of the fuel cycle
Supply assurances to forego national facilities
Limiting the scale of fuel cycle activities
The politics of rollback
Alleviation of security concerns
Resolve status concerns
Pay special attention to oppositional nationalists
Attend to the activities of nuclear mythmakers
Reduce the role of the military
Encourage openness to the outside world
Enhance the non-proliferation norm
Buy time
US and Iranian strategies for conflict management
US strategy
Iranian strategy
Resumption of negotiations – and resumption of sanctions
Assessment
Implications for the NPT
Notes

Part III Challenge from below

7 The threat of nuclear terrorism
Nuclear terrorism: risk identification
“Could they, would they?”
Modalities of nuclear terrorism
Preliminary observations (1)
Nuclear terrorism: risk analysis
Risk
Consequences
Probability
Intentions
Capabilities
Opportunities
Preliminary observations (2)
Nuclear terrorism: risk evaluation and risk treatment
Restraining intentions
Baring capabilities
Conclusion
Is nuclear terrorism really a threat?
What are the most worrisome loopholes in the international safeguards system?
How likely is it that people with evil intentions might be able to take advantage of them?
Notes

8 The atomic terrorist?
Obtaining a finished bomb: assistance by a state
Stealing or illicitly purchasing a bomb: loose nukes
Building a bomb of one’s own
Procuring fissile material
Constructing an atomic device
Transporting and detonating the device
The financial costs
Assessing the likelihood of terrorist success
Assigning and calculating probabilities
Multiple attempts
Other acquisition scenarios
Comparisons
Progress and interest
Capacity
Acceptable risk
Notes

Part IV Challenge from above

9 The United States and the NPT “double bargain”
Early efforts to eliminate nuclear weapons
The Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty
Proliferation and the US response
The vision of a world free of nuclear weapons
The Obama Administration
The current American debate
Conclusion
Notes

10 The nuclear policy of Russia and the perspectives for nuclear disarmament
Notes

11 Creating “nuclear order”
The nuclear arms race and international security in the twentieth century
On the road to nuclear order?
Notes

12 The UK, responsible nuclear sovereignty and the disarmament threshold
Distinctive features of the UK’s engagement with nuclear weapons
Geography and strategy
Economics and the ‘special relationship‘ between the UK and US
Domestic politics of nuclear weapons: division in the Labour Party
The UK and the international nuclear ‘order of restraint’
Economic shocks, Trident replacement and the disarmament threshold
Prospects and lessons
To remain or not to remain a nuclear weapon state?
International implications
Notes

13 France and nuclear non-proliferation
The early years: France’s ambiguous record
Changing perceptions in the 1990s
France’s current approach to nuclear non-proliferation
A strict interpretation of Article VI of the NPT
An emphasis on concrete steps and a realistic agenda to reinforce the regime
The active promotion of the peaceful uses of nuclear energy
Conclusion
Notes

14 Departing revolution
Mao’s early attitudes toward the bomb
Soviet support and the rise of China’s first bomb project
Breaking up Soviet–American “nuclear monopoly”: China built the bomb
Revolution at peak: Beijing challenged the NPT
Departing revolution: China’s path toward embracing the NTP
Notes

15 China’s policy on nuclear weapons and disarmament
China’s philosophical and ethical concepts on nuclear weapons
The nuclear weapon is not a good thing
The nuclear weapon is useless
China must have its own nuclear weapons so as not to be blackmailed by its enemies
China’s nuclear arsenal serves only one purpose – to deter nuclear attack against China
A small arsenal is a good enough deterrent to ensure China’s survival
China’s no-first-use (NFU) nuclear policy
The renunciation of the first use option
Security assurance to non nuclear weapon states and nuclear free zones
A defensive and self-defensive force posture
A small but effective nuclear arsenal
Complete prohibition of nuclear weapons and thorough nuclear disarmament
Factors influencing China’s nuclear modernization
Peaceful rise in the twenty-flrst century
NFU as the deciding factor
Change in China’s nuclear environment
US ballistic missile defense systems
The Taiwan issue
China’s policy on nuclear disarmament
Notes

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Tags: Olav Njølstad, Nuclear, Proliferation, International