Quantitative Risk Assessment in Fire Safety 1st Edition by Ganapathy Ramachandran, David Charters 0419207902 9780419207900
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ISBN 10: 0419207902
ISBN 13: 9780419207900
Author: Ganapathy Ramachandran, David Charters
Fire safety regulations in many countries require Fire Risk Assessment to be carried out for buildings such as workplaces and houses in multiple occupation. This duty is imposed on a “Responsible Person” and also on any other persons having control of buildings in compliance with the requirements specified in the regulations. Although regulations only require a qualitative assessment of fire risk, a quantitative assessment is an essential first step for performing cost-benefit analysis of alternative fire strategies to comply with the regulations and selecting the most cost-effective strategy. To facilitate this assessment, various qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative techniques of fire risk assessment, already developed, are critically reviewed in this book and some improvements are suggested. This book is intended to be an expanded version of Part 7: Probabilistic risk assessment, 2003, a Published Document (PD) to British Standard BS 7974: 2001 on the Application of Fire Safety Engineering Principles to the Design of Buildings. Ganapathy Ramachandran and David Charters were co-authors of PD 7974 Part 7. Quantitative Risk Assessment in Fire Safety is essential reading for consultants, academics, fire safety engineers, fire officers, building control officers and students in fire safety engineering. It also provides useful tools for fire protection economists and risk management professionals, including those involved in fire insurance underwriting.
Table of contents:
1 Introduction
1.1 Fire engineering
1.2 Deterministic approaches
1.3 Probabilistic approaches
1.4 Background to the development of fire risk assessment
1.4.1 Corporate governance
1.4.2 Risk management
1.4.3 Legislation
1.4.4 Fire safety management
1.4.5 Qualitative fire risk assessment methods
1.4.6 Semi-quantitative fire risk assessment methods
1.4.7 Quantitative fire risk assessment
1.4.8 Other methods
1.5 Examples of the adoption of fire risk assessment
1.5.1 Introduction
1.5.2 Nuclear installations
1.5.3 Chemical plant and offshore installations
1.5.4 Transport
1.5.5 Tunnels
1.5.6 Summary
1.6 General principles of fire risk assessment
1.6.1 Introduction
1.6.2 Consistency with the regulatory paradigm
1.6.3 Based on engineering and scientific principles
1.6.4 Adding value to the design process
1.6.5 Not addressing all aspects of building fire safety
1.6.6 Not recreating exact fire events
References
2 Qualitative and semi-quantitative risk assessment techniques
2.1 Qualitative techniques
2.1.1 Unstructured methods
2.1.2 Checklists
2.1.3 Structured methods
2.1.4 Fire hazard definitions
2.2 Semi-quantitative techniques
2.2.1 Matrix methods
2.2.2 Points schemes
References
3 Quantitative risk assessment techniques
3.1 Theoretical basis
3.1.1 Probability theory
3.1.2 Set theory and Boolean algebra
3.1.3 Reliability and availability of systems
3.1.4 Frequency of ignition
3.2 Logic trees
3.2.1 Event tree analysis
3.2.2 Fault tree analysis
3.3 Statistical models
3.3.1 Power functions
3.3.2 Exponential model
3.3.3 Regression analysis
3.3.4 Probability distributions
3.3.5 Extreme value distributions
3.4 Stochastic models
3.4.1 Stochastic nature of fire spread
3.4.2 Random walk
3.4.3 Markov model
3.4.4 Network models
3.5 Monte Carlo simulation
3.5.1 Introduction
3.5.2 Monte Carlo simulation
3.5.3 Simulation models – examples
3.5.4 Merits and demerits of simulation
3.6 Consequence analysis
3.6.1 Introduction
3.6.2 Historical data
3.6.3 Disasters and near misses
3.6.4 Experiments and fire tests
3.6.5 Modelling
3.6.6 Complex computational analysis
3.7 Dealing with uncertainty
3.7.1 Sensitivity analysis
3.7.2 Uncertainty analysis
3.7.3 Safety factors
3.7.4 Beta method
References
4 Acceptance criteria
4.1 Comparative criteria
4.2 Absolute criteria
4.2.1 Individual risk levels
4.2.2 Societal risk levels
4.2.3 Multiple-death fires
4.3 Financial objectives
4.3.1 Introduction
4.3.2 Target level for property damage
4.3.3 Target levels for consequential loss
4.3.4 Target levels for structural failure
4.3.5 Cost-benefit analysis
4.4 Other objectives
References
5 Initiation
5.1 Frequency of ignition/probability of fire starting
5.1.1 Global estimation
5.1.2 Particular buildings
5.1.3 Special factors affecting frequency of fire occurrence
5.2 Probable rate of fire growth
5.2.1 Introduction
5.2.2 Stages of fire growth
5.2.3 The exponential model
5.2.4 Maximum rate of fire growth
5.2.5 Individual growth rate and average growth rate
5.2.6 Applications
5.3 Probability of flashover
5.3.1 Introduction
5.3.2 Exponential model of fire growth
5.3.3 Event probability tree model
5.3.4 Probability distribution of area damage
5.3.5 Hotel bedroom
5.3.6 Compartment size
5.3.7 Time before established burning
5.4 Probable damage in a fire
5.4.1 Introduction
5.4.2 Extent of fire spread and floor area damaged
5.4.3 Financial loss
5.4.4 Life loss
5.4.5 Total performance
References
6 Design fire size
Introduction
6.2 Current concept of design fire size
6.3 Probability–time based design fire size
6.3.1 Introduction
6.3.2 Framework
6.3.3 Detectors
6.3.4 Sprinklers
6.3.5 Ventilation systems
References
7 Fire spread beyond room of origin
7.1 Probability of fire spread beyond room of origin
7.2 Performance and reliability of compartmentation
7.2.1 Probabilistic approach
7.2.2 Reliability approach
7.3 Performance and reliability of building structure
References
8 Performance and reliability of detection, alarm and suppression
8.1 Detection
8.1.1 Human detection
8.1.2 Automatic detection
8.2 Alarm
8.2.1 Conventional alarms
8.2.2 Informative fire warning systems
8.3 Suppression
8.3.1 First-aid fire fighting
8.3.2 Sprinklers
References
9 Performance and reliability of human response and evacuation
9.1 Recognition
9.2 Response
9.3 Evacuation
9.4 Design evacuation time
References
10 Performance and effectiveness of fire service intervention
Introduction
10.2 Attendance time and travel time
10.2.1 Definition
10.2.2 Travel time vector
10.2.3 Travel time measures
10.3 Travel distance
10.3.1 Methods of estimation
10.3.2 Time–distance relationship
10.3.3 Square-root law
10.3.4 Average travel times in a region
10.4 Attendance time and fire damage
10.4.1 Introduction
10.4.2 Attendance time and fire loss
10.4.3 Attendance time and life loss
10.5 Fire fighting
10.5.1 Fire brigade intervention
10.5.2 Methods of extinction
10.5.3 Control time
10.5.4 Number of jets
References
11 Whole project analysis
Introduction
11.2 Risk parameters
11.3 The full quantification fire risk assessment process
11.3.1 Hazard identification processes
11.3.2 Frequency analysis
11.3.3 Consequence analysis
11.3.4 Risk evaluation
11.3.5 Risk reduction
11.4 Examples
11.4.1 Example 1 Application of full quantitative fire risk assessment of a shopping centre design
11.4.2 Example 2: Life safety and asset protection in schools
References
12 Interactions
Introduction
12.2 Passive and active fire protection
12.2.1 Sprinklers and passive fire protection
12.3 Smoke movement and evacuation of occupants
12.4 Fire protection measures and fire brigade
12.4.1 Building design and fire brigade
12.4.2 Sprinklers and fire brigade
12.4.3 Automatic detection systems and fire brigade
12.4.4 Smoke ventilation systems and fire brigade
References
13 Combining data from various sources – Bayesian techniques
Introduction
13.2 Bayes’ theorem
13.3 Probability of fire recurrence
13.3.1 Example 1
13.3.2 Example 2
13.3.3 Example 3
13.4 Probable loss in a fire
13.4.1 A heavy goods vehicle (HGV) fire in a tunnel
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Tags: Ganapathy Ramachandran, David Charters, Quantitative, Assessment